Top Reads, Listens, Follows & Takeaways of the week
Macro investment forecasts, Tim Donaghy, Growth vs Value
Takeaways:
-Howard Marks believes that macro investment forecasts are rarely correct, and if they are correct they aren’t profitable - all of the evidence supports him. What should we make of this? It’s clear that it’s better to say, “I don’t know what the future holds”, and instead of trying to be ‘right’ (which often manifests as performance chasing) simply try to not be ‘wrong’. To me this looks like broad diversification across asset classes and geographies while closely guarding against behavioral biases.
-The Tim Donaghy Untold Netflix documentary was awesome. It’s clear to me he’s still lying. I think he has that prideful, competitive edge to him where deep down doesn’t think it was wrong what he did. There’s no way Scott Fisher wasn’t at least aware of what was happening. David Stern really executed crisis management well and controlled what probably should have been significant damage.
-The FT article on Wall St turning music into an asset class was fascinating.
-How much brain damage has been done in the growth v value investing debate? I think if you capture equity market beta cheaply through market cap indexing and then get your fix by adding a small satellite growth or value position you’d be far better off.
Reads:
How Wall Street stormed the music business (here)
Yvon Chouinard, founder of Patagonia, gives away his company for a cause (here)
Cheap Energy & Imaginary Wealth (here)
Equity Markets in the Next Stage of the Tightening Cycle (here)
Equity Compensation 101 (here)
Morgan Housel says forecasts are futile (here)
Opinion: China’s coal power boom (here)
Listens:
The illusion of knowledge by Howard Marks (here)
Zoltan Pozsar and Perry Mehrling Debate Bretton Woods 3.0 (here)
How I Built this: Rivian (here)
Marlena Lee, Head of Investment Solutions for Dimensional, on value and down markets (here)
The battle to remain bullish (here)
Follow, Watch & Other great content: