Top Reads, Listens, Follows & Takeaways of the week
Conventional Warfare
Takeaways:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine almost one year ago kicked off the largest conventional ground war in Europe since World War II and there’s no end in sight. The war should serve as a reminder of the brutality of conventional warfare and make us reassess what it takes to equip ourselves for such a conflict against a nation-state.
The defense industrial base and the Pentagon has been caught off guard by the rapid consumption of arms and ammunition in the war. In less than one year, Ukraine has used 13 years of production of Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and five years worth of Javelin missiles1. These arms have been drawn from a U.S stockpile once believed to be adequate for our own defense.
As the defense production supply chain pivoted to accommodate demand for high tech aviation, lasers, and missiles, it discounted a future where combat could look more like the trench warfare2 of WWI and tank columns of WWII than that of a science fiction film. Pivoting ossified defense supply chains to restock ourselves and support Ukraine will not be a quick process. The CEO of Lockheed Martin expects to be able to achieve its promised Javelin production by 2024. Replenishing other key munitions like howitzers and HIMARS will take even longer according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies3.
The brutality and toll of nation-state conventional warfare with the use of modern weapons is staggering. It is estimated that 200,000 Russians have been killed and wounded so far, 10x the toll of Americans killed and wounded in our 20 year war in Afghanistan. The aftermath of only one year of conventional warfare in Ukraine paints an even scarier picture to those considering our equipment readiness and willingness to bear the human toll of what a conflict over Taiwan could look like.
Reads:
Why bias in AI is inevitable, necessary and the beginning of the end of the information age by Michael Green (here)
Bill Gurley on “Customer First” Healthcare (here)
U.S. Car Makers’ EV Plans Hinge on Made-in-America Batteries (here)
Bill Gates loves trash (here) + the manager of his family office (here & here)
What China’s reopening means for markets (here)
Why Does Private Equity Get to Play Make-Believe With Prices? by Cliff Asness (here)
Farewell, Masa Son (here)
Listens:
Chris Arnade: Dignity - Seeking Respect in Back Row America (here)
Will the 2024 election be a rerun of 2020? If not, what might it look like? (here)
Replicating Private Equity/Hedge Funds in Public Markets (here)
Trend Following for life with DUNN Capital Management (here)
Follow, Watch & Other great content:
60 Minutes: The Red Hot Chili Peppers (here)
Incredible video of an avalanche (here)
Coast Guard swimmer rescues man from ocean as yacht capsizes (here)
